Analysis of situation with Iran

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Iranian Economy Struggles but WMD Programs Advance
Analysis


An Iranian navy ship fires a Mehrab short range missile during a naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, January 1, 2012. (EBRAHIM NOROOZI/AFP/Getty Images)
Erratic Iranian Behavior Points to a Volatile and Dangerous Year
January 3, 2012 | Security | Middle East and North Africa

Summary
2012 begins with growing danger from Iran due to threats it made over the last week to close the Strait of Hormuz, missile tests, and a claim that it has constructed its first nuclear fuel rod. In this special analysis, which includes the views of former CIA Director Michael Hayden, former UN Ambassador John Bolton, and former Ambassador to Venezuela Otto Reich, LIGNET looks at these developments and what they portend for 2012.
Iran’s threatening behavior over the last week is consistent with other recent provocative behavior, such as an Iranian plot to use members of a Mexican drug cartel to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States and a November 2011 raid by Iranian “students” on the British embassy in Tehran.  This behavior comes at a time when Iran finds itself in its most isolated position since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Economic sanctions are hurting the Iranian economy and even more painful sanctions are being contemplated by Europe and the United States. There is open talk of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. These factors plus fissures within the Iranian leadership and political maneuvering ahead of the March 2012 parliamentary elections and the June 2013 presidential elections is creating a volatile situation in Iran that raises the prospects for miscalculation that could lead to a military confrontation over the next 12 months.

1200 EDT update: Iranian Army commander-in-chief Major General Ataollah Salehi warned the United States today that a U.S. aircraft carrrier, the U.S.S. John C. Stennis, which recently left the Persian Gulf on a routine mission, should not re-enter the Gulf. A U.S. Navy spokesman rejected Iran's threat, saying that "the deployment of U.S. military assets in the Persian Gulf will continue as it has for decades."
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