Keep the shuttle flying: Fwd: Elon Musk: Falcon 9 launch failure "a huge blow to SpaceX"

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From: "Gary Johnson" <gjohnson144@comcast.net>
Date: July 8, 2015 at 7:11:10 PM CDT
To: "Gary Johnson" <gjohnson144@comcast.net>
Subject: FW: Elon Musk: Falcon 9 launch failure "a huge blow to SpaceX"

SpaceX close to figuring out rocket failure during launch
By MARCIA DUNN

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — SpaceX still is trying to figure out what caused its rocket to break apart during liftoff nine days ago, but is getting close to an answer, the company's chief executive said Tuesday.
The unmanned Falcon 9 rocket carrying cargo for the International Space Station had just lifted off on June 28 when the accident occurred.
Speaking Tuesday at a conference in Boston, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said the trouble appeared to be in the upper stage, with an over-pressurization of the liquid oxygen tank. Nevertheless, the California-based company is putting together what he calls a "super-detailed" timeline, millisecond by millisecond.
So far, a leading theory has yet to emerge, Musk told attendees of the space station research and development conference. The available data are difficult to interpret, and so "whatever happened is clearly not a sort of simple, straightforward thing," he said. Nevertheless, he hopes to have something definitive to say by week's end.
"Obviously, it's a huge blow to SpaceX. We take these missions incredibly seriously," Musk said.
The accident occurred on Musk's 44th birthday — "a real downer — definitely a low point."
The main intent was to deliver more than 5,000 pounds of supplies and equipment to the space station, including the first of two docking ports for crew capsules in development by SpaceX and Boeing. The Dragon capsule carrying all the cargo slammed into the ocean, along with the rocket wreckage.
A secondary objective, at least for the company, was an attempt to land the first-stage booster on an ocean platform just off the Jacksonville, Florida, coast. Previous tries had failed, and Musk considered it his best chance to achieve a solid vertical touchdown — until the entire rocket was lost in flight.
Musk told the crowd that he sees rocket reusability as key to lowering spaceflight costs and opening up space travel to the masses. He noted that any business, especially involving space, needs to take big chances to attain big success.
The company's six previous delivery missions contracted by NASA had gone exceedingly well, as did a trial run in 2012.
Overall, it was the third lost shipment in eight months — Orbital Sciences Corp. in October, the Russian space program in April, then SpaceX in June.
NASA's space station program manager Mike Suffredini said at the conference that the three failed missions have had "a big impact to us."
"Never in my wildest dream," Suffredini said, did he think so many cargo ships would go down in such a short period. The same crew provisions were reflown to make up for the failed missions, and three times ended up being lost.
"We'll keep trying until we get that right, because the crew does need their clothes," Suffredini noted wryly.
On a brighter note, the Russians apparently corrected their rocket trouble and successfully launched a cargo ship to the orbiting lab late last week. The Japanese Space Agency is on track to send up supplies in mid-August. And Orbital Sciences plans to fly its Cygnus cargo carrier aboard another company's Atlas rocket in December, while its own Antares rocket remains grounded following last fall's explosion over the launch pad.
Suffredini pointed out that the three astronauts aboard the space station are healthy and safe, with plenty of scientific work. Three more crewmen are set to launch from Kazakhstan later this month.

Copyright © 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

By William Harwood
CBS News
July 7, 2015, 10:58 AM
Elon Musk: Falcon 9 launch failure "a huge blow to SpaceX"
NASA space station program manager Mike Suffredini, left, chats with SpaceX founder Elon Musk at a space station conference in Boston. Musk said engineers have not yet isolated the root cause of a recent Falcon 9 launch failure.

SpaceX founder and chief designer Elon Musk said Tuesday the June 28 failure of a Falcon 9 rocket that destroyed a space station-bound Dragon cargo capsule was a "huge blow" to the company and that conflicting data has made it difficult to determine the root cause of the mishap.
Speaking at the annual International Space Station R&D Conference in Boston, Musk said he hopes to be able to say "something more definitive toward the end of the week."
"At this point, the only thing that's really clear is there was some kind of over-pressure event in the upper stage liquid oxygen tank," he said. "But the exact cause and the sequence of events, there's still no clear theory that fits with all the data."
SpaceX holds a $1.6 billion contract with NASA to build and launch 12 space station resupply missions using the company's Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon cargo capsule. During launch of the seventh operational resupply mission June 28, the second stage liquid oxygen tank apparently ruptured around two minutes and 39 seconds into flight.
The rocket's nine first-stage engines were nearing the end of their planned burn and the booster continued flying as the second stage was engulfed in vapor. Seconds later, the vehicle disintegrated in a burst of fragments. The Dragon capsule apparently survived the rocket's initial breakup, transmitting telemetry as it plunged toward impact in the Atlantic Ocean.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket breaks up after a second stage failure during launch June 28, destroying a Dragon cargo ship loaded with more than two tons of supplies and equipment bound for the International Space Station.
NASA TV
Lost in the failure were more than 4,000 pounds of research gear, spare parts and supplies needed aboard the space station, including a spacesuit and a docking mechanism, the first of two intended for use by visiting U.S. crew ferry ships.
"Obviously, it's a huge blow to SpaceX," Musk said of the failure. "We take these missions incredibly seriously. Everyone that can engage in the investigation at SpaceX is very, very focused on that.
"In this case, the data seems to be quite difficult to interpret. Whatever happened is clearly not a simple, straight-forward thing. So we want to spend as much time as possible just reviewing the data, obviously going over it with NASA and the FAA and a number of other customers, and just sort of seeing what feedback everyone has, based on their prior experience, to see if we can get to what the most likely root cause is."
Sharing the stage with Mike Suffredini, NASA's space station program manager, Musk thanked the space agency for its help in the ongoing failure analysis.
"As soon as we think we've got a clear line on what happened, and we've cross checked it with as many experts as we can -- and we certainly appreciate the feedback from NASA on this front -- we'll certainly try to put out that story," Musk said. "My only reticence about saying something quite yet, I don't want to say something that subsequently turns out to be a misunderstanding of the situation."
The SpaceX failure was the third in seven space station resupply missions and the company's first Falcon 9 mishap in 19 flights dating back to the rocket's debut in 2010. Not surprisingly, Suffredini said the failures have combined to have a "big impact" on station operations.
"As a program, we always assumed we'd lose one or two logistics vehicles and that we'd have to deal with that," he said. "Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine we'd lose three in eight months. But you deal with the cards that are dealt, and so that's where we are today."
The first resupply incident occurred on Oct. 28, 2014, when an Orbital Sciences Antares rocket carrying a Cygnus cargo ship exploded seconds after liftoff. It was Orbital's third resupply mission under a $1.9 billion contract with NASA.
The Antares remains grounded as the company switches to different engines, but Orbital plans to launch a Cygnus supply ship atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket in December to help NASA make up lost ground.
In the wake of the Orbital failure, SpaceX's Dragon and Russia's Progress cargo craft took turns with four successful resupply missions in a row. But on April 28, a Russian Progress, the 59th launched to the station, spun out of control moments after reaching orbit and plunged back into the atmosphere a week and a half later.
Two months after that, SpaceX lost its seventh operational Dragon mission. In the back-to-back failures, NASA lost more than five tons of cargo and supplies.
The Russians resumed Progress flights on July 3, successfully launching the M-28M/60P mission from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. A Japanese HTV cargo craft is scheduled for launch in mid August and Orbital is on track to launch its next Cygnus capsule in early December. But it's too soon to say when SpaceX might resume flights.
"Our SpaceX colleagues have an in-depth knowledge of their vehicle, which they have largely built from the ground up," Suffredini said. "They have quite a bit of data on it, so I have high confidence in their ability to recover from this anomaly and get flying in time to continue to support the International Space Station."
Musk said company engineers are still trying to put together a precise millisecond-by-millisecond timeline based on telemetry from the rocket to pin down the root cause. At the same time, he added, the team will be on the lookout for any other problems that might have gone undetected to "maximize the probability of success for future missions."

© 2015 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Musk: Falcon 9 rocket failure a "huge blow" to SpaceX
July 7, 2015 by Stephen Clark
SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket broke apart approximately 139 seconds after launch June 28. Credit: Walter Scriptunas II/Scriptunas Images
Speaking publicly for the first time since a Falcon 9 rocket failure that destroyed a Dragon cargo capsule for the International Space Station, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said Tuesday that engineers are still piecing together what happened during the June 28 accident in hopes of announcing more details within a few days.
The rocket failure occurred minutes after liftoff from Cape Canaveral — the first such mishap in the Falcon 9's 19 missions to date — causing the booster to disintegrate 45 kilometers (28 miles) over the Atlantic Ocean.
"Obviously, this is a huge blow to SpaceX, and we take these missions incredibly seriously," Musk said in a question and answer session Tuesday at an International Space Station conference in Boston. "Everyone that can engage in the investigation at SpaceX is very, very focused on that. In this case, the data does seem to be quite difficult to interpret. Whatever happened is clearly not a simple, straightforward thing, so we want to spend as much time as possible just reviewing the data."
Echoing earlier statements by SpaceX, Musk said the company has enlisted help from NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration and other customers in the investigation.
He said engineers will "look at both what we think most likely happened, and then anything that's a close call, and then try to address all of those things and maximize the probability of success on future missions."
Musk hopes to release more details on the failure by the end of this week after further data analysis and engineering reviews.
"At this point, the only thing that's really clear was there was some kind of over-pressure event in the upper stage liquid oxygen tank, but the exact cause and sequence of events, there's still no clear theory that fits with all the data," Musk said. "So we have to determine if some of the data is a measurement error of some kind, or if there's actually a theory that matches what appear to be conflicting data points."
Musk did not address how long the Falcon 9 rocket might be grounded in the aftermath of the accident while engineers find the cause and implement corrective actions. SpaceX officials have said they informed customers booked to fly on upcoming Falcon 9 launches to expect delays of a few months.
File photo of SpaceX founder and chief executive Elon Musk. Credit: Gene Blevins/LA Daily News
"As soon as we've got a clear line on what happened … we'll certainly put out that story," Musk said. "My only reticence about saying something quite yet is I don't want to say something that subsequently turns out to be a misunderstanding of the situation."
SpaceX officials said recovery teams in the Atlantic Ocean northeast of Cape Canaveral have retrieved debris from the launch failure, but the wreckage is small and likely holds few clues to the cause of the anomaly. Instead, engineers are focused on analyzing more than 3,000 channels of telemetry, including on-board video sources, to re-construct the flight timeline.
"The biggest thing that's needed in the short term is the ability to just gather all the data, and create a very precise timeline, so that, by the millisecond, we know what each sensor was reading, and we can correlate that with ground video," Musk said. "One of the biggest challenges is matching things to the exact time.
"When you're dealing in milliseconds, all that stuff actually makes quite a bit of difference, so that's the biggest effort we've been engaged in so far — just creating a super-detailed timeline," Musk said.
Michael Suffredini, NASA's space station program manager, said the research outpost is doing fine without the more than 4,000 pounds of cargo lost aboard SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket.
The supplies lost included a new docking ring designed to receive future commercial crew capsules in development by Boeing and SpaceX. A second docking adapter is already built awaiting launch, and spare parts exist to assemble a third unit, officials said.
A spacesuit, components needed to repair the lab's water filtration system, food and crew provisions, and experiments also went down in the Dragon spacecraft.
The Falcon 9 failure was the second in back-to-back failures on missions to resupply the space station. A Russian Progress cargo freighter spun out of control in late April.
NASA contracted with SpaceX and Orbital ATK to deliver logistics to the space station after the retirement of the space shuttle. Orbital had its own launch failure in October 2014, in which an Antares supply rocket heading for the space station crashed just after blastoff from Virginia.
"We're still doing research on ISS, the crew is healthy, the vehicle is healthy, and unfortunately we have lost, in the last eight months, three vehicles," Suffredini said, adding the failures have had a "big impact" on the space station program.
The string of failures since October 2014 came after just one lost mission to the space station in the previous 16 years, a period in which more than 150 launches went up to build and outfit the complex.
"As a program, we always assumed we'd lose one or two logistics vehicles and that we'd have to deal with that," Suffredini said. "Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine we'd lose three in eight months, but you deal with the cards that are dealt, so that's where we are today."
Russia's Progress resupply freighter returned to flight with a successful launch July 3. It docked with the space station two days later with nearly three tons of fuel, oxygen, food and experiments.
Three new crew members are due to depart for the space station July 22 aboard a Russian Soyuz ferry capsule, raising the lab's crew back to six residents.
Then attention turns to a Japanese resupply launch scheduled for Aug. 16. Japan's HTV cargo freighter is the biggest supply transporter in the space station's fleet, and Suffredini said managers have adjusted some of the spaceship's load to make up for items lost on earlier missions.
He assured researchers that officials made only minor changes to the complement of experiments manifested on the HTV flight, removing some hardware to be used for research next year. That cargo can be flown to the space station on a later mission, Suffredini said.
"All the research on HTV remains," Suffredini said. "We did have to modify some of the other supplies to make sure we have everything we needed."
Before the end of the year — even if no SpaceX missions launch — three more cargo deliveries are on tap. The space station is scheduled to receive two more Progress supply vehicles in September and November, and Orbital ATK's Cygnus logistics carrier is set for launch in early December aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket.
Orbital ATK contracted with ULA to launch the resupply flight while engineers redesign the company's Antares booster for new engines in the wake of last year's launch failure. Officials expect the Antares rocket to resume launching in March 2016.
Under NASA's deals with SpaceX and Orbital ATK, the space agency can withhold a final payment to the contractor if a cargo flight fails, but the companies are not required to refly a mission.

© 2015 Spaceflight Now Inc.

Musk: No Clear Explanation Yet for Falcon 9 Failure
by Jeff Foust — July 7, 2015
Elon Musk (right) discusses the ongoing Falcon 9 investigation in an onstage interview with NASA ISS program manager Michael Suffredini in Boston July 7. Credit: SpaceNews photo by Jeff Foust
BOSTON — The ongoing investigation into the June 28 Falcon 9 launch failure has yet to find a cause for the accident based on the available data, SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk said July 7.
Musk, speaking at the International Space Station Research and Development Conference here, said that the destruction of the vehicle nearly two and a half minutes after liftoff from Cape Canaveral did not appear to have a straightforward cause, and that the data the company had was difficult to interpret.
"Whatever happened is clearly not a sort of simple, straightforward thing," he said in his most extensive public comments to date on the launch failure. "There's still no clear theory that fits with all the data."
Musk reiterated earlier statements he made on Twitter that linked the failure to an "overpressure event" in the liquid oxygen tank in the upper stage of the Falcon 9. Video of the launch appeared to show a cloud expanding from the upper stage about ten seconds before the rocket disintegrated. What caused that overpressure event, though, remains uncertain.
One issue engineers are examining, he said, is the possibility that some of the data might be corrupted or otherwise in error. "We're determining if some of the data is measurement error of some kind, or whether there's actually a theory that matches" the data they have on hand, he said.
"Everyone who can engage in the investigation at SpaceX is very, very focused on that," he said. That includes constructing a "super-detailed" timeline, accurate to the millisecond, of the events leading up to the loss of the vehicle that correlates vehicle telemetry and video from the ground. "We want to spend as much time as possible just reviewing the data," he said, including reviewing it with NASA and others.
Musk, speaking at the conference in an on-stage interview with NASA ISS program manager Michael Suffredini, said that NASA has provided support for the investigation. "The interaction with NASA has been great so far," he said. "The biggest challenge is that there are a lot of inquiries coming in simultaneously, so it's hard to keep responding to everyone right away."
Despite the current difficulty in determining the cause of the failure, Musk believed that SpaceX would be able to soon better identify what took place. "I think we'll be able to say something more definitive towards the end of the week," he said.
He added he declined to go into more details now because "I don't want to say something that subsequently turns out to be a misunderstanding of the situation."
The results of the investigation could also lead to changes to the vehicle beyond anything directly linked to the cause of the failure. The company, Musk said, would "look at both what most likely happened and then anything that's a close call and try to address all of those things and maximize the probability of success for future missions."
Musk didn't give a timetable for when the vehicle might return to flight, but indirectly indicated he expected launches to resume later this year.
Asked later in the interview about SpaceX's attempts to make the first stage of the Falcon 9 reusable, he noted the company has tried to land the stage on a ship on several launches, including the previous successful launch in April, without success.
"Hopefully later this year we'll be able to do that," he said.

© 2015 SpaceNews, Inc. All rights reserved.

Falcon 9 Rocket Failure a Huge Blow to SpaceX: Musk
by Ken Kremer on July 7, 2015

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk (right) and NASA's ISS Manager Mike Suffredini (left) discuss ISS research and the June 28, 2015 Falcon 9 launch disaster at the International Space Station Research & Development Conference being held in Boston, Mass, on July 7. Credit: NASA
In his first public comments since the surprise disintegration of the commercial SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket some two minutes after last week's liftoff on June 28, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said today (July 7) that the launch failure was a "huge blow" to his company and the cause remains elusive and is under intense investigation.
"The accident was a huge blow to SpaceX," Musk told the opening session of the International Space Station Research & Development Conference being held in Boston, Mass, during an on-stage conversation with NASA's International Space Station manager Mike Suffredini.
The private SpaceX Falcon 9 booster broke up just minutes after a picture perfect blastoff from Cape Canaveral on a crucial logistics flight for NASA, carrying a SpaceX Dragon cargo freighter that was headed to the International Space Station (ISS).
Dragon was chock full of over two tons of research experiments and much needed supplies and gear for the multinational crews serving aboard.
"There's still no clear theory that fits with all the data," Musk said. "We take these missions incredibly seriously."
The cargo ships function as a railroad to space and the lifeline to keep the station continuously crewed and functioning. Without periodic resupply by visiting vehicles the ISS cannot operate.
The SpaceX Falcon 9 and Dragon were destroyed just over two minutes after a stunning liftoff from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in sunny Florida at 10:21 a.m. EDT.
The upper stage of the rocket suddenly exploded due to an as yet unexplained anomaly as the nine first stage Merlin 1D engines kept firing. Moments later it vaporized into a grayish cloud at supersonic speed, raining debris down into the Atlantic Ocean.
Although the second stage appears to be the culprit in the disaster, Musk said that there is still not a coherent cause and explanation of the data and was hard to interpret.
"Whatever happened is clearly not a sort of simple, straightforward thing," he explained. "In this case, the data does seem to be quite difficult to interpret."
"So we want to spend as much time as possible just reviewing the data. No clear theory fits all the data."
The Falcon 9 was transmitting data on over 3,000 channels of flight data streams.
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon cargo spaceship dazzled in the moments after liftoff from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on June 28, 2015 but were soon doomed to a sudden catastrophic destruction barely two minutes later in the inset photo (left). Composite image includes up close launch photo taken from pad camera set at Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral and mid-air explosion photo taken from the roof of the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, Florida as rocket was streaking to the International Space Station (ISS) on CRS-7 cargo resupply mission. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com
Virtually since the moment of the mishap approximately 139 seconds after the otherwise successful launch, SpaceX engineers have been pouring over the data to try and determine the root cause of the accident.
"Everyone that can engage in the investigation at SpaceX is very, very focused on that,"Musk elaborated. "We want to spend as much time as possible just reviewing the data."
From the beginning Musk indicated that there was some type of over pressure event in the upper stage liquid oxygen tank and he elaborated a bit at the conference.
"At this point, the only thing that's really clear was there was some kind of over-pressure event in the upper stage liquid oxygen tank, but the exact cause and sequence of events, there's still no clear theory that fits with all the data."
"So we have to determine if some of the data is a measurement error of some kind, or if there's actually a theory that matches what appear to be conflicting data points."
SpaceX is conducting an intense and thorough investigation with the active support of various government agencies including the FAA, NASA and the U.S. Air Force.
"The interaction with NASA has been great so far," Musk said. "The biggest challenge is that there are a lot of inquiries coming in simultaneously, so it's hard to keep responding to everyone right away."
SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon resupply spaceship explode about 2 minutes after liftoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida on June 28, 2015. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com
The accident investigation is in full swing both at the Cape and SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, Ca.
Hans Koenigsmann, SpaceX VP of Mission Assurance, is leading the accident investigation for SpaceX.
"The process for determining the root cause of Sunday's mishap is complex, and there is no one theory yet that is consistent with the data," SpaceX spokesman John Taylor told me earlier.
"Our engineering teams are heads down reviewing every available piece of flight data as we work through a thorough fault tree analysis in order to identify root cause."
Umbilicals away and detaching from SpaceX Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on June 28, 2015 that was doomed to disaster soon thereafter. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com
The June 28 launch was the 19th overall for the Falcon 9 booster and the first failure in an otherwise hugely successful program by the new space company founded by Musk and headquartered in Hawthorne, CA. Musk's oft stated goals include radically slashing the cost of access to space to enable much wider participation in the space frontier by entrepreneurs and individuals and foster much greater exploration that will aid human missions to the Red Planet.
SpaceX may have more to say publicly later this week.
"I think we'll be able to say something more definitive towards the end of the week," Musk noted.
In the meantime all SpaceX launches are on hold for several months at least.
The SpaceX CRS-7 cargo launch failure was the second of two back to back cargo delivery launch failures run to the space station, including both American and Russian rockets since April, and the third in the past eight months that significantly crimped the stations stockpiles and abruptly impacted upcoming crew rotations and launches throughout the remainder of 2015.
Fortunately, the string of launch failures with the successful launch the Russian Progress 60 cargo freighter on July 3, five days after the SpaceX CRS-7 failure. Progress 60 docked at the ISS on July 5 with three tons of supplies, to the relief of the station partners worldwide.