Posted on December 26, 2011 by Bob
Calculations of probabilities of LOV or LOC are not that precise. In the case of shuttle the loss of ET insulation had been observed for years and didn’t get proper attention as had the SRB o-rings. Similar situation have and are occurring in major DOD systems. Of course hindsight is great. One can understand how management can be lulled into a sense of “it is ok”, keep on flying. However, these situations occur in all complex system programs and is not a reason to terminate the program as in the case of the shuttle. Nonconformances should be fixed and the program should continue.
SPM/ Shannon made an excellent point about shuttle safety since Columbia. However, it appears the ASAP had made up their mind, replace the shuttle. Many mistakes were made by various disciplines prior to Columbia accident. However, hindsight is great, mistakes are made, but corrections are made as Shannon noted. You don't end a program as important as shuttle because of these type mistakes, they occur on all complex programs. You fix problems and continue.
The remark that the shuttle is becoming “more riskier” drew anger from throughout the shuttle program, not least due to the fact that major steps forward – via numerous safety modifications – that have been proved via a run of highly successful and “clean” missions since Return To Flight.
The recently landed STS-128 mission is already being classed as the cleanest flight – from a Thermal Protection System (TPS) standpoint – in the history of the program.
Such as been the anger – or more so astonishment – at the Admirals remarks, even Mr Shannon decided to add remarks to the latest Shuttle Standup/Integration report (available on L2) to give his position to the SSP team, made in his usual calm and professional manner.
“There were some disturbing remarks from the head of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP). We are working to understand these concerns from a Shuttle risk standpoint,” Mr Shannon noted. “We are flying safer now, and have a better safety culture and integrated team approach with many checks and balances to ensure that we are flying as safely as absolutely possible.”
Mr Shannon also cited the recent Flight Readiness Review (FRR) and Mission Management Team (MMT) decisions not to launch a mission until they were absolutely sure the shuttle was safe to carry it out.
These decisions are well documented, from the continuous External Tank foam modifications from STS-114 onwards, to the Engine Cut Off (ECO) sensor/LH2 Feedthrough connector issues surrounding STS-122, to the extensive Flow Control Valve (FCV) discussions, to the GUCP (Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate) misalignment, and right through to STS-128?s LH2 Fill and Drain Valve indications – to name but a few.
However, NASA ‘s manned programs get unusual attention when major failures occur, unlike DoD, which is unfortunate. Two year delays for both Challenger and Columbia with both boards and ASAP making ultra conservative recommendations which hamper the programs.
Look at the contrast with DOD programs, after major failures, they move on. This is why DOD should take over, after all we need the space program and specifically the shuttle.
Look at the two years down time and public testimony during the boards — some circus.
Doesn’t happen with DOD programs. For the good of the nation , DOD must take over critical space operations.
Consider the knowledge, hardware, capability, money, etc. We have in the shuttle. Are we going to wind up in the same place with a new system not as capable as shuttle 10 to 20 years from now.?
Do you think these new efforts are going to be trouble free? Factor in the accident boards, media coverage, delays, the Nation can not afford these upcoming delays. Don’t forget we have a proven vehicle called the shuttle in a Museum, a vehicle which we understand now rather than one it will take 40 years to get to this point, one that we have spent billions on and due to it being in a museum we are not performing space operations that need to be done (HST, ISS) plus paying Russians .5 billion per year for something we CAN do.
Place DOD in charge of space operations and resume and improve the Space Shuttle
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