Expat · 1 hour ago
"No one asks "what is the President's vision for transporting people from New York to Paris..."
Maybe because there already is a market in the private economy for flights from NY to Paris?
But there is NOT a market in the private economy for SpaceX to sell flights to and from orbit. This will be especially true in less than ten years when the Space Station goes away (and ten years is a best case scenario).
Here's a better analogy:
Smart people thought there was a market for commercial supersonic transport forty years ago. And after the technology was in hand and operational, that turned out (for a variety of reasons) NOT to be the case. Concorde service survived as long as it did because two governments subsidized its operations. When those subsidies were withdrawn, British Air and Air France retired the fleet. The Concordes were still flightworthy, but no one could afford to fly them (sound familiar? substitute Shuttle for Concorde...)
Same thing is looming for SpaceX and Boeing's manned capsules---when the ISS is retired (assuming they get their capsules operational before then) the government subsidies will likewise go away. And so will their manned capsules.
You can thank the Obama Administration for that on many levels, including his economic policies that have failed to produce US economic growth at the 5-6% levels we used to enjoy. So lower economic growth (both in the US and abroad) the fewer customers you will have for SpaceX to sell its very, very expensive tickets to for billionaire space tourists. No ISS? No market for space tourists? No SpaceX or Boeing capsules flying.
The End. Of US manned spacefllight, anyway.
Maybe because there already is a market in the private economy for flights from NY to Paris?
But there is NOT a market in the private economy for SpaceX to sell flights to and from orbit. This will be especially true in less than ten years when the Space Station goes away (and ten years is a best case scenario).
Here's a better analogy:
Smart people thought there was a market for commercial supersonic transport forty years ago. And after the technology was in hand and operational, that turned out (for a variety of reasons) NOT to be the case. Concorde service survived as long as it did because two governments subsidized its operations. When those subsidies were withdrawn, British Air and Air France retired the fleet. The Concordes were still flightworthy, but no one could afford to fly them (sound familiar? substitute Shuttle for Concorde...)
Same thing is looming for SpaceX and Boeing's manned capsules---when the ISS is retired (assuming they get their capsules operational before then) the government subsidies will likewise go away. And so will their manned capsules.
You can thank the Obama Administration for that on many levels, including his economic policies that have failed to produce US economic growth at the 5-6% levels we used to enjoy. So lower economic growth (both in the US and abroad) the fewer customers you will have for SpaceX to sell its very, very expensive tickets to for billionaire space tourists. No ISS? No market for space tourists? No SpaceX or Boeing capsules flying.
The End. Of US manned spacefllight, anyway.
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