Monday, October 29, 2012
8 point Romney win?
Gallup Explains Why Other Polls Are Wrong
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on October 29, 2012
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In a large sample, very important survey, Gallup reported on Friday that the likely 2012 electorate will be among the most Republican in history.
In 2008, 12 percent more self-described Democrats voted than Republicans (54-42). In 2004, the electorate was 48-48 evenly split between the parties. In Gallup's poll, they found that in 2012 it will be 46-49 for the Republicans -- a fifteen point swing from 2008!
The reason most other polls are wrong is that, seeing this Republican surge, they discount it as sampling error in their polls and re-weight the data to make it conform to the traditional partisan divisions, thus obliterating the real trend and obscuring what is actually going on.
The fact is that the country has moved sharply in the direction of the Republican Party since 2008 and even since 2010.
Want to know how much Romney will win by?
Obama won by 7 points in 2008. But the electorate has become 15 points more Republican since then. Do the math -- an 8 point Romney victory! OK, maybe 5 or 6 or 7, but no cliffhanger.
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About Dick Morris
Dick Morris is well known for his insightful and hard-hitting commentary on the FOXNews channel. With his wife, Eileen McGann, Dick has written 14 books, including 10 NY Times best-sellers. Together they pen almost daily columns for their website www.DickMorris.com, the New York Post, Newsmax, the Hill Magazine and many other publications. Domestically, Morris has handled the winning campaigns of more than 30 Senators and Governors, including President Bill Clinton and Republican Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott. Internationally, he has piloted the successful campaigns of the president or prime minister of Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Uruguay, Kenya, Hungary, Poland, Taiwan, and Japan.
Morris and McGann's latest book is Screwed!: How Foreign Countries Are Ripping America Off and Plundering Our Economy-and How Our Leaders Help Them Do It.
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