Human space flight struggling

NASA’s human spaceflight program enters the new year struggling
 
Eric Berger - Houston Chronicle's SciGuy
 
Congratulations to NASA: During the holidays its pair of GRAIL spacecraft successfully entered into lunar orbit, where they will study the moon’s interior. This is yet another triumph for the unmanned space program.
 
If only we could say the same about the human side of the equation.
 
NASA’s human spaceflight program just concluded what Paul Spudis characterized as an Annus Horribilis. Spudis wrote of NASA on the 50th anniversary of Yuri Gagarin’s flight, “The space program, steeped in the history of global geopolitics and national competition, has sputtered slowly to a stop.”
 
This comes in contrast to China, which in late December released a white paper (see text) on where it’s been in space, and where it’s going. The country plans to continue building its space station and making preparations for putting astronauts on the moon by developing a new generation of Long March launch vehicle.
 
Meanwhile NASA, which now appears unlikely to have its own, privately developed human transport to orbit before 2017, must continue to watch and worry as Russia confronts difficulties with its own program.
 
First there was the loss of a Russian Progress supply vehicle last August. Then Russia lost its Phobos-Grunt robotic mission due to a rocketry issue in November. Finally, during the holidays, another Soyuz rocket launch failed.
 
To be fair the Russians have yet to lose any astronauts while working with NASA, but the latest round of failures are definitely cause for concern. NASASpaceflight.com suggests that any more failures could have severe consequences for NASA’s International Space Station program:
 
If any further Soyuz rockets fail in 2012, it will not only have implications for Progress cargo flights, but also Soyuz crewed flights, which could lead to a de-crewing of the station since the ISS partners now depend on the Soyuz for crewed access to the station.
 
As such, successful launches of both Progress and Soyuz spacecraft are vital for a continued crewed presence on the ISS throughout 2012.
 
Thus as we enter the new year the fate of the American space program is in the hands of the not entirely reliant Russian rocket program. For the next five years. At least.
 
Where the candidates stand on space in 2012